St. Louis Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak continues to make it known that he wants third baseman Nolan Arenado off his team.
Over the weekend, he labeled the prospect of trading the veteran All-Star during the latter portions of MLB’s offseason as “priority one, two, and three.”
The 33-year-old Arenado is coming off his worst full season in the majors since his rookie season, batting .272 with a .719 OPS, 16 home runs, and 71 RBI in 152 games. It continued a concerning regression, which began in 2023. While he hit 26 home runs with 93 RBI, his OPS sank to .774.
From 2015 to 2022, he slashed .291/.353/.553 (.905 OPS) with averages of 34 home runs and 107 RBI.
A return to those numbers entering his age-34 season is obviously a big ask, but there is a case to be made that he could put up more production in a lineup that has more protection.
Arenado is still one of the more composed hitters at the plate. His whiff rate of 17.2% ranked in MLB’s 88th percentile, while his strikeout rate of 14.1% was in the 92nd. In a deeper lineup, he would get more to hit, which could potentially rectify the concerning 6% barrel rate, 86.3 mph average exit velocity, and 31.6% hard-hit rate.
Still, the Cardinals will have to eat some money to make a trade more appealing, even if Arenado is still one of the best defensive third basemen in the game.
He has three years and $74 million remaining on his contract, but the Colorado Rockies—who traded Arenado to St. Louis ahead of the 2021 season—are already eating some of that money, bringing it down to approximately $60 million.
That is still $20 million per season, a considerable cost for a player coming off a down season.
The Cardinals are reportedly willing to eat between $15 million and $20 million of the remaining contract, which would come out to a more affordable $13.3 million per season if the deal was cut down to, say, a three-year, $40 million pact.
Arenado’s no-trade clause adds another wrinkle to all of this. He has already blocked a trade to the Houston Astros this offseason. What is known at this time is that he would be willing to waive that no-trade clause to go to the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and New York Mets.
As things get closer to spring training, the Mets’ inclusion is something to ponder.
Pete Alonso’s future with the club remains uncertain as he remains one of baseball’s biggest remaining free agents. If he does not return, the organization would likely move last year’s breakout star and starting third baseman, Mark Vientos, over to first.
That would leave an internal competition for the third-base job between Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and perhaps Luisangel Acuna.
While the 25-year-old Baty has continuously excelled at Triple-A, it has not translated to the big-league level yet. In 544 career at-bats in the big leagues, he’s batting .215 with a .607 OPS.
Neither Mauricio, who is coming off knee surgery, nor Acuna are natural third basemen. They also have just 140 big-league at-bats between them. That is a lot to put on younger players, especially for a team with World Series aspirations this season.
Across town, the Yankees could use the infield stability that would come with Arenado. They have already shown interest in him this offseason, but the Cardinals shut down talks when the Yankees wanted to include starting pitcher Marcus Stroman and the $18.3 million he is due in 2025.
Still, the Yankees have major question marks in their infield. They parted ways with Anthony Rizzo and brought on Paul Goldschmidt to replace him. But they have not officially replaced Gleyber Torres at second base after letting him walk to the Detroit Tigers in free agency.
Jazz Chisholm is a natural second baseman, but he played third base more than anything after the Yankees acquired him at the trade deadline last year. The team could work out a convoluted platoon between second and third with him, DJ LeMahieu, and Oswaldo Cabrera, but how much confidence does that inspire in the Bronx?
Arenado suddenly makes the Bronx Bombers’ infield look a bit more sustainable, and even if the Yankees need to clear Stroman’s contract to make a move like this happen, the Cardinals’ desperation to get Arenado out of town at least suggests that there could be a chance for talks to spark back up.
Kcassman